What’s a counterfactual? Philosophers love the example, “If Oswald hadn’t killed Kennedy, someone else would have”. More generally, Y would be y had X been x in situation U = u (Judea Pearl’s, 2011, rendering).
Pearl, J. (2011). The structural theory of causation. In P. McKay Illari, F. Russo, & J. Williamson (Eds.), Causality in the Sciences (pp. 697–727). Oxford University Press.