Research 📚


  1. Published output
    1. Reports
    2. Articles
    3. Book chapters
    4. Proceedings papers
    5. Responses and comments
    6. Book reviews
    7. Miscellanea
  2. Conference, workshop, and invited presentations
  3. Other Stuff

Published output


Scott, M., Scandone, B., Griggs, J., Roberts, E., Bristow, T., Woolfe, E., Dey, M., & Fugard, A. (2024). Basic Maths Premium evaluation report. NatCen Report prepared for Education Endowment Foundation.

Dimova, S., Woodbridge, H., Duysak, E., Garwood, E., Ruddick-Trentmann, J., Phillips, N., Kuo, T.-L., Fugard, A., Griggs, J., Phillips, D., Koval, N., Al Refai, L., Qiblawi, Z., Outhred, R., Marshall, L., Murray, M., & da Silvia, C. (2023). “Let’s Read Fluently!” Pilot evaluation report. NatCen Report prepared for Queen Rania Foundation.

Papaioannou, K., Kuo, T.-L., Dimova, S., Fugard, A., Sharrock, S., Roberts, E., Kersting, F., Haux, T., Ng-Knight, T. (2023). Evaluation of Family Drug and Alcohol Courts. NatCen Report prepared for Foundations.

Kerr, J., Morgan, H., MacNaboe, L., Sciarra, A., Cossu, E., Barton-Crosby, J., & Fugard, A. (2023). LNK Educate: Feasibility and pilot study report. NatCen Report prepared for the Youth Endowment Fund.

Barton-Crosby, J., MacNaboe, L., Roberts, E., Sciarra, A., Duysak, E., Fugard, A., Phillips, D., & DeMarco, J. (2023). Send me a pic? Pilot evaluation report. NatCen Report prepared for the National Crime Agency.

Department for Education (2011). Me and My School: Findings from the National Evaluation of Targeted Mental Health in Schools 2008-2011. Research Report DFE-RR177. (A collaboration between CAMHS EBPU, University College London, CEM, Durham University, University of Manchester, University of Leicester, National Institute of Economic and Social Research)

Aniketos Consortium (2011). Models and methodologies for embedding and monitoring trust in services. Project report.


Fugard, A. (2020). Should trans people be postmodernist in the streets but positivist in the spreadsheets? A reply to Sullivan. International Journal of Social Research Methodology, 23, 525–531. [Preprint here]

Varkanitsa, M., Kasselimis, D., Boulouis, G., Fugard, A. J. B., Evdokimidis, I., Druks, J., Potagas, C., Van de Koot, H. (2019). Verbal memory and sentence comprehension in aphasia: A case series. Neurocase, 25, 169–176.

Chan, K. M. Y., & Fugard, A. J. B. (2018). Assessing speech, language and communication difficulties in children referred for ADHD: A qualitative evaluation of a UK child and adolescent mental health service. Clinical Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 23, 442–456.

Kleiter, G. D., Fugard, A. J. B., & Pfeifer, N. (2018). A process model of the understanding of uncertain conditionals. Thinking & Reasoning, 24, 386–422.

Stafford, M. R., Cooper, M., Barkham, M., Beecham, J., Bower, P., Cromarty, K., Fugard, A. J. B., Jackson, C., Pearce, P., Ryder, R., & Street, C. (2018). Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of humanistic counselling in schools for young people with emotional distress (ETHOS): study protocol for a randomised controlled trial. Trials, 19:175.

Watson, A. J., Joyce, E. M., Fugard, A. J. B., Leeson, V. C., Barnes, T. R. E., & Huddy, V. (2017). More Haste Less Speed: A Meta-Analysis of Thinking Latencies During Planning in People with Psychosis. Psychiatry Research, 258, 576–582.

Dockrell, J. E., Howell, P. Leung, D., & Fugard, A. J. B. (2017). Children with speech, language and communication needs in England: challenges for practice. Frontiers in Education, 2:35.

Terrelonge, D. N & Fugard, A. J. B. (2017). Associations between family and clinician ratings of child mental health: a study of UK CAMHS assessments and outcomes. Clinical Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 22, 664–674.

Pearce, P., Sewell, R., Cooper, M., Osman, S., Fugard, A. J. B., & Pybis, J. (2017). Effectiveness of school-based humanistic counselling for psychological distress in young people: Randomised controlled trial with follow-up. Psychology and Psychotherapy: Theory, Research and Practice, 90, 138–155.

Fugard, A. J. B. & Potts, H. W. W. (2016). “Shine bright like a diamond”? A reply to Braun and Clarke. International Journal of Social Research Methodology, 19, 745-746. (Target article over here.)

Varkanitsa, M., Kasselimis, D., Fugard, A. J. B., Evdokimidis, I., Druks, J., Potagas, C., & Koot, H. Van De. (2016). Syntactic predictions and asyntactic comprehension in aphasia: Evidence from scope relations. Journal of Neurolinguistics, 40, 15–36.

MacDonald, A. J. D., & Fugard, A. J. B. (2015). Routine Mental Health Outcomes Measurement in the UK. International Review of Psychiatry, 27, 306-319

Fugard, A. J. B. & Potts, H. W. W. (2015). Supporting thinking on sample sizes for thematic analyses: A quantitative tool. International Journal of Social Research Methodology, 18, 669-684. (There’s an app for that.) See also comments by David Byrne, Nick Emmel, Martyn Hammersley, and our reply.

Cooper, M., Fugard, A. J. B., Pybis, J., McArthur, K., & Pearce, P. (2015). Estimating effectiveness of school-based counselling: Using data from controlled trials to predict improvement over non-intervention change. Counselling and Psychotherapy Research, 15, 262-273.

Fugard, A. J. B., Stapley, E., Ford, T., Law, D., Wolpert, M. & York, A. (2015). Analysing and reporting UK CAMHS outcomes: an application of funnel plots. Child and Adolescent Mental Health, 20, 155–162. (Formerly known as “League tables of mental health service outcomes are harmful: a substantive and statistical alternative”.)

Fugard, A. (2015). The ethics of national routine outcomes monitoring policies: a case for taking action. Clinical Psychology Forum, 267, 11–15.

Wolpert, M. Humphrey, N. Deighton, J. Patalay, P., Fugard, A. J. B., Fonagy, P. Belsky, J., Vostanis, P. (2015). An Evaluation of the Implementation and Impact of England’s Mandated School-Based Mental Health Initiative. School Psychology Review, 44, 117–139.

Wolpert, M., Görzig, A., Deighton, J., Fugard, A. J. B., Newman, R., & Ford. T. (2015). Comparison of indices of clinically meaningful change in Child and Adolescent Mental Health Services (CAMHS): difference scores, reliable change, crossing clinical thresholds and “added value” – an exploration using parent rated scores on the SDQ. Child and Adolescent Mental Health, 20, 94–101.

Achourioti, T., Fugard, A. J. B., & Stenning, K. (2014). The empirical study of norms is just what we are missing. Frontiers in Psychology, 5, 1159.

Deighton, J., Patalay, P., Belsky, J., Humphrey, N., Vostanis, P., Fugard, A., Fonagy, P., & Wolpert, M. (2013). Targeted mental health provision for children with behaviour difficulties in primary schools: Results of a national trial. The Psychology of Education Review, 37(2), 40–45.

Bradley, J., Murphy, S., Fugard, A. J. B., Nolas, S.-M. & Law, D. (2013). What kind of goals do children and young people set for themselves in therapy? Developing a goals framework using CORC data. Child & Family Clinical Psychology Review, 1, 8–18.

Fugard, A. J. B & Stenning, K. (2013). Statistical models as cognitive models of individual differences in reasoning. Argument & Computation, 4(1), 89–102.

Wolpert, M., Fugard, A. J. B., Deighton, J., & Görzig, A. (2012). Editorial Commentary: Routine outcomes monitoring as part of Children and Young People’s Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (CYP IAPT) – improving care or unhelpful burden? Child and Adolescent Mental Health, 17, 129–130.

Wolpert, M., Ford, T., Law, D., Trustam, E., Deighton, J., Flannery, H., & Fugard, A. J. B. (2012). Patient reported outcomes in child and adolescent mental health services (CAMHS): Use of idiographic and standardized measures. Journal of Mental Health, 21, 165–173.

Fugard, A. J. B., Pfeifer, N., Mayerhofer, B., & Kleiter, G. D. (2011). How people interpret conditionals: Shifts towards the conditional event. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 37(3), 635–648.

Fugard, A. J. B., Stewart, M. E., & Stenning, K. (2011). Visual/verbal-analytic reasoning bias as a function of self-reported autistic-like traits: a study of typically developing individuals solving Raven’s Advanced Progressive Matrices. Autism, 15(3), 327–340.

Fugard, A. J. B., Pfeifer, N., & Mayerhofer, B. (2011). Probabilistic theories of reasoning need pragmatics too: modulating relevance in uncertain conditionals. Journal of Pragmatics, 43, 2034–2042.

Malcolm, G. L., Lanyon, L. J., Fugard, A. J. B., & Barton, J. J. S. (2008). Scanning fixations during the processing of facial expression versus identity: an exploration of task-driven and stimulus-driven effects. Journal of Vision, 8(8):2, 1–9.

Bundy, A., Jamnik, M., & Fugard, A. (2005). What is a proof? Philosophical Transactions of The Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 363(1835), 2377–2391. (See also slides by Alan Bundy.)

Book chapters

Fugard, A., & Potts, H. W. W. (2019). Thematic Analysis. In P. Atkinson, S. Delamont, A. Cernat, J. W. Sakshaug, & R. A. Williams (Eds.), SAGE Research Methods Foundations. London: SAGE Publications Ltd.

Fugard, A. (2014). Understanding uncertainty in mental health questionnaire data. In Law, D. & Wolpert, M. (eds.), Guide to using outcomes and feedback tools with children, young people and families. London: CAMHS Press.

Wolpert, M., Fugard, A., & Deighton, J. (2013). Issues in evaluation of psychotherapies. In Philip Graham & Shirley Reynolds (eds). Cognitive Behaviour Therapy for Children and Families, 3rd Edition (pp. 34–47), Cambridge Monograph Series in Child and Adolescent Psychiatry, Cambridge University Press.

Proceedings papers

Aslan, I., Murer, M., Fuchsberger, V., Fugard, A., & Tscheligi, M. (2013). Workload on your fingertips. In Proceedings of the 2013 ACM international conference on Interactive tabletops and surfaces – ITS ’13 (pp. 417–420). New York: ACM Press.

Aslan, I., Murer, M., Fuchsberger, V., Fugard, A., & Tscheligi, M. (2013). Drag and drop the apple: the semantic weight of words and images in touch-based interaction. In Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on Tangible, Embedded and Embodied Interaction (pp. 159-166). New York: ACM Press.

Fugard, A. J. B., Beck, E., & Gärtner, M. (2012) How will software engineers of the Internet of Things reason about trust? In Wichert, R., Van Laerhoven, K., Gelissen, J. (eds.), AmI 2011 Workshops, CCIS 277, pp. 274–279. Heidelberg: Springer.

Fugard, A. J. B. (2011). Towards a social cognitive theory of resilience in unemployed people. In Å. Aamaas, W. J. F. Keenan, C. Sedmak, & L. van der Zijden (Eds.), Resilience and Unemployment (pp. 69-86). Wien–Münster: LIT Verlag.

Fugard, A. J. B., Pfeifer, N., Mayerhofer B., and Kleiter, G. D. (2009). How people interpret an uncertain If. In Proceedings of the 8th Workshop on Uncertainty Processing, Liblice, pp. 80–91.

Responses and comments

Fugard A. J. B. & Potts, H. W. W. (2016). Qual and quant are too broad and blended – time to look at specific goals of the research [comment on Greenhalgh et al.]. BMJ Rapid Response.

Achourioti, T., Fugard, A. J. B., & Stenning, K. (2011). Throwing the normative baby out with the prescriptivist bathwater [comment on Shira Elqayam and Jonathan St. B. T. Evans], Behavioral and Brain Sciences, 34(5), 249.

Book reviews (published)

Fugard, A. J. B. (2018). Book review: The Knowledge Corrupters by Colin Crouch. Network (Magazine of the British Sociological Association), 128, 31.

Fugard, A. J. B. (2017). Book review: The Cognitive Neuroscience of Schizophrenia by Chris Frith (reissued classic edition, 2015). Journal of Critical Psychology, Counselling & Psychotherapy, 14, 146–147.

Fugard, A. J. B. (2014). Book review: High-quality psychotherapy research: from conception to piloting to national trials by Areán & Kraemer (2013). Journal of Critical Psychology, Counselling & Psychotherapy, 14, 215–216.


Fugard, A. (2020). Using R for Social Research. Unpublished course notes.

Fugard, A. (2018, June 14). How to find money to save the NHS. Socialist Health Association Blog.

Fugard, A. (2016, Dec 5). Mental health services should not be paid by outcomes. The Conversation.

Fugard, A. (2016, Oct 6). Can we really say that giving money to people begging makes their problems worse? The Conversation.

Wolpert, M and Fugard, A. (2013). Consistent Measure. YoungMinds Magazine, Issue 119, Spring 2013, 32–33.

Fugard, A. (2012). Commentary on the proposed adult mental health PbR cluster decision support algorithm (internal group discussion note).

Fugard, A., Bradley, J., Booker, T., Clark, D., Murphy, M., O’Herlihy, A., Oates, M., Pugh, K., & Wolpert. M. (2012). CYP IAPT Outcomes and Data Consultation and proposed way forward. Consultation report.

Fugard, A. J. B. (2009). Exploring individual differences in deductive reasoning as a function of “autistic”-like traits. PhD thesis, the University of Edinburgh, Scotland.

Raven, J. & Fugard, A. (2008). What’s wrong with factor-analysing tests conforming to the requirements of Item Response Theory? Unpublished.

Fugard, A. (2008). Counting first-order models (with n individuals) of syllogisms. Unpublished note. See also A016103 and A140961 in the On-Line Encyclopedia of Integer Sequences.

Conference, workshop, and invited presentations

“Challenging the Theory-Based/Counterfactual Binary”, UK Evaluation Society, 5 December 2023. (Slides.)

“What if all impact evaluations were counterfactual approaches?”, Office for National Statistics Evaluation Month, 24 Oct 2023.

“A Better Start – national evaluation update”, 6 June 2023. With Janet Boddy, Beth Young, and Eliza Garwood.

“Randomised Control Trials that work for evidence-based policy”, Policy that Works conference,  28 February to 3 March 2022. Evaluation Task Force, part of Cabinet Office and HM Treasury.

“Challenging the central dogma of quantitative methods: a single case, subjective model of gender”, British Sociological Association Annual Conference, Aston University, Birmingham, 21–23 April 2020.

“Les émotions au bout des doigts : vers une nouvelle mesure des émotions” (Dufaut, M., Csillik, A., Fenouillet, F., Meyer, T., Wilkes, S. & Fugard, A.), 2ème congrès Français et francophone de Psychologie Positive, Université de Lorraine, France, 15–17 May 2019.

“Is there such a thing as quantitative psychosocial thinking? R. D. Laing et al. (1966) as a case study”. Association for Psychosocial Studies Biennial Conference, Bournemouth, 5-7 April 2018.

“Researching mental health and wellbeing in practice: from clinic to app and beyond”. Invited talk, Multimodale Mensch-Technik Interaktion, University of Augsburg. 17 July 2017.

“Understanding whether psychological interventions work in practice: implications for wellbeing and positive psychology”. Invited talk, Laboratoire Cognitions Humaine et Artificielle, Université Paris Ouest Nanterre La Défense. 22 June 2017.

Roundtable discussion with Caroline Zheng and Phoenix Perry. Royal College of Art, as part of Communicating the Intangible. 19 Sep 2016.

“Speaking for Itself”. Performance with Eline Tsvetkova at Cabaret Voltaire, Zürich, as part of Cabaret der Künstler – Zunfthaus Voltaire, Manifesta 11, 12 August 2016.

“Resilience programmes are controversial, but can they be helpful?” British Sociological Association Sociology of Education Study Group Conference: “Grit”, Governmentality & the Erasure of Inequality? The Curious Rise of Character Education Policy, 11 July 2016, London. Work with Susan Birch and Antonia Cobbald.

“Outcomes in practice: a critical friendly workshop”. Keynote, CAMHS 2016 Conference, 6-8 July 2016, Northampton. (Slides)

“Touching emotions: using physical objects to measure subjective affect”. 8th European Conference on Positive Psychology. June 28 to July 1st, Angers, France. Work with Sarah Wilkes and Praveetha Pataley. (Poster)

“What we talk about when we talk about mechanisms in psychological therapies”. New frontiers for evaluating evidence in medicine, 20 June 2016. EBM+ consortium workshop.

“Viewing HoNOS through symptom networks: a useful alternative to factor scores?” UKROM, 8 July 2015. Work with Alastair Macdonald. (Slides)

“Estimating effectiveness of school-based counselling: using data from controlled trials to predict improvement over non-intervention change”. British Association for Counselling and Psychotherapy (BACP) Annual Research Conference ‘Understanding Professional Practice: the role of research’. 15-16 May 2015, Nottingham.

“Exploring psychological treatment mechanisms using data from treatment as usual”. EBM+: Evidence of mechanisms in evidence-based medicine, University of Kent, 8-9 Jan 2015.

“Objective Structured Professional Assessment (OSPA) Project: Initial Results”, National Educational Psychology Tutors’ Event, 26th September 2014, London

“Understanding uncertainty in CYP IAPT outcomes data”, 22nd Sept 2014, London and South East CYP IAPT Learning Collaborative Meeting

“Sample size determination for thematic analysis and related qualitative methodologies: a quantitative model”, 6th ESRC Research Methods Festival 9th July 2014.

Andy Fugard, Mick Cooper. “Reasoning about individual change using session-by-session school counselling data: a comparison of three approaches”. British Psychological Society, Mathematical, Statistical & Computing Section Annual Scientific Meeting, 14 December 2013

“Embedding Research into Practice”, BACP Children & Young People – Counselling Research Day – London, 30 November 2013

Dr Andy Fugard, Emily Stapley, Dr Tamsin Ford and Dr Miranda Wolpert. “Ranking mental health service outcomes is harmful: towards a balanced substantive and statistical alternative.” Royal College of Psychiatry, Faculty of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry Annual Residential Conference 18-20 September 2013. (Slides.)

Andy Fugard and the CAMHS PbR Team. Predicting children and young people’s needs in UK mental health services. CYP IAPT Collaboration Workshop., Institute of Public Health, Cambridge, 10th July 2013. (Slides)

Andy Fugard, Lee Murray (MegaNexus), Andy Hill, Jo Pybis, Charlie Jackson (BACP). “Practice Research Network: making routine outcome monitoring more manageable”. BACP Children and Young People conference 2013 “Working together and holding the difference”, Saturday 8 June 2013. (Slides over here.)

“Statistical decision making in child and adolescent mental health: illustrations and implications”. Centre for Reasoning, University of Kent, Wednesday, 31 October 2012.

Dr Tamsin Ford, Dr Andy Fugard, Dr Duncan Law (2012). “The use of measures of outcome and experience to improve child and adolescent services: a practical guide.” Royal College of Psychiatrists Faculty of Child and Adolescent Psychiatry Annual Residential Conference, 20 Sept 2012, Manchester

Andy Fugard, Jenna Bradley, Dion Terrelonge, Emily Stapley, Miranda Wolpert & CORC (2012). Making sense of children and young people’s mental health outcomes in naturalistic settings. Invited talk at the Psychology Department, University of Stirling, 23 Feb 2012.

Miranda Wolpert, Andy Fugard, Halina Flannery, Jenna Bradley, and Jessica Deighton (2011). Using Routinely Collected Outcomes to Transform Practice. Talk at the First CORC International Conference, London, 11 July 2011.

“Empirical constraints on how the mind computes a Ramsey test”. Invited talk at the the DIP Colloquium, of the Logic and Language group at the Institute for Logic, Language, and Computation, University of Amsterdam, 18 Feb 2011.

“Reasoning about uncertain conditionals in frontal and hypoxic-ischemic brain injury patients”. Poster at the 29th European Workshop on Cognitive Neuropsychology, Bressanone, Italy, 23-28 January 2011. Work with Guilherme Wood and Harald Zauner.

“Towards a rational use of mathematics in the psychology of reasoning”. Talk at the British Psychological Society, Mathematics, Statistics & Computing Section Meeting, Nottingham, UK, 14 December 2010.

“The psychology of deduction in a probabilistic setting”. Talk at the symposium “What is a deduction? Integrating logical, psychological and philosophical perspectives”, at the Annual Meeting of the European Society for Philosophy and Psychology, Bochum and Essen, Germany, 25-28 August 2010. Work with Niki Pfeifer. (Slides.)

Participant at the Impulses from Salzburg conference “Resilience and Unemployment”, 18-21 May 2010. Organised by the Center for Ethics and Poverty Research and the ifz – International Research Center.

“How people converge on an interpretation of conditionals.” Talk at ProbNet10, 25-28 February 2010. Work with Pfeifer, Mayerhofer, Kleiter. (Slides.)

“What does probability have to do with how people reason?” Salzburger Gesellschaft für Psychologie, 13 Jan 2010. Jointly given with Niki Pfeifer.

“How people interpret an uncertain if“. Talk at Workshops on Uncertainty Processing (WUPES), Liblice, 19-23rd Sept 2009. Work with Niki Pfeifer, Bastian Mayerhofer, and Gernot Kleiter.

“Modelling reasoning processes as a function of autistic-like traits”. Talk at the Annual Meeting of the European Society for Philosophy and Psychology (ESPP), Budapest, 27-30 August 2009. Work with Mary Stewart and Keith Stenning. (Slides.)

“Conditional interpretation in a generalized probabilistic truth table task”. Talk at the 4th London Reasoning Workshop, 27-28th July, Birkbeck College, London. Work with Niki Pfeifer, Bastian Mayerhofer, and Gernot Kleiter. (Slides.)

“Embracing individual differences in reasoning”. Talk at ProbNet09, 19th–23rd February 2009, University of Salzburg.

“Exploring quantifier reasoning and autistic-like traits”. Poster with Keith Stenning and Mary Stewart at the International Conference on Thinking, Venice, Italy, 21-23 August 2008

“Autistic traits moderate closed world interpretation in conditional reasoning”. Poster with Keith Stenning and Mary Stewart at the International Conference on Thinking, Venice, Italy, 21-23 August 2008

“How do autistic traits relate to reasoning processes?” Poster with Keith Stenning, Bob Logie, and Mary Stewart at the Experimental Psychology Society meeting, joint with the Psychonomics Society, Edinburgh, 4-7 July 2007

Other Stuff

I found (2008) a closed-form for sequence A016103 in the On-Line Encyclopedia of Integer Sequences and added a new related sequence (2008) A140961 (with thanks to Vladeta Jovovic, whom I found via A051588, for the interpretation in terms of binary matrices).

Added A358693 in 2023, whilst looking for properties of the number 2023.

Impulse Tracker music (2000): sure0012 and sure0008, also on The Mod Archive.

Google Scholar profile

Some Wikipedia pages I created: Aimable Robert Jonckheere, Brendan McGonigle, Cathie Marsh, Hilda Weiss, Huey-tsyh Chen, Keith Stenning, Michiel van Lambalgen, Psychology of reasoning, Theory-driven evaluation, Category:Women statisticians.

Finally, half-baked thoughts I would like to develop.