Suppose you have a coin that you suspect might be biased. Here’s how you can debias it so that there’s a 50-50 chance of heads or tails, thanks to a neat idea often attributed to John von Neumann (1951/1963, p. 768):

“… in tossing a coin it is probably easier to make two consecutive tosses independent than to toss heads with probability exactly one-half. If independence of successive tosses is assumed, we can reconstruct a 50-50 chance out of even a badly biased coin by tossing twice. If we get heads-heads or tails-tails, we reject the tosses and try again. If we get heads-tails (or tails-heads), we accept the result as heads (or tails). The resulting process is rigorously unbiased, although the amended process is at most 25 percent as efficient as ordinary coin-tossing.”

Why does this work? First, the probability of heads followed by tails (\(HT\)) is the following product, since coin flips are independent:

\(P(HT) = P(H) [1-P(H)]\)

We get the same answer for tails followed by heads (\(TH\)):

\(P(TH) = [1-P(H)] P(H) = P(H) [1-P(H)]\)

So, \(P(HT) = P(TH)\), which already hints at why this works.

For example, if a coin is so ridiculously biased that it only has a 10% chance of a heads outcome, then

\(\displaystyle P(HT) = P(TH) = \frac{1}{10} \frac{9}{10} = \frac{9}{100}\)

We really want a debiased coin to have a 50-50 chance of a heads or tails outcome. That’s where ignoring \(HH\) and \(TT\) outcomes helps: we condition on \(HT\) or \(TH\).

Assuming \(0 < P(H) < 1\), then

\(\displaystyle P(HT|HT \lor TH) = \frac{P(HT)}{P(HT) + P(TH)}\)

\(\displaystyle = \frac{P(HT)}{P(HT) + P(HT)}\)

\(\displaystyle = \frac{1}{2}\)

Same sums for \(P(TH|HT \lor TH)\). Et voila, a fair coin from two or more tosses of a biased one!

Let’s simulate it using *rbinom* in R.

Here’s a biased coin, with 1/10 chance of heads, flipped 20,000 times (\(H = 1\) and \(T = 0\)):

test <- rbinom(20000, 1, .1) table(test)

This gives:

test 0 1 17982 2018

Around 10% of outcomes were heads.

Now the debiaser:

debias_iid <- function(x) { stopifnot(length(x) >= 2) stopifnot(length(x) %% 2 == 0) res <- rep(NA, length(x)/2) j <- 1 for (i in seq(1,length(x), 2)) { res[j] <- case_when( x[i] == 1 && x[i+1] == 0 ~ 1, x[i] == 0 && x[i+1] == 1 ~ 0 ) j <- j+1 } res }

Try it:

debias_iid(test) |> table()

That looks better:

0 1 900 924

50.7% of outcomes were heads, which is the sort of value we would expect, given sampling error, for a fair coin.

### References

von Neumann, J. (1951) Various Techniques Used in Connection with Random Digits, Notes by G. E. Forsythe, *National Bureau of Standards Applied Math Series*, *12*, 36-38. Reprinted in von Neumann’s Collected Works (1963), Pergamon Press, pp. 768-770.