The “change” in “theory of change” is often interpreted as meaning change over time, which can be misleading. If a programme is designed to prevent an outcome from occurring (for example, a worsening of mental health), then there may be no pre-post change at all. Alternatively, any observed pre-post change may be driven by regression to the mean or by factors other than the programme under evaluation.
In a counterfactual impact evaluation, the “change” of interest is the expected or desired causal effect (or “treatment” effect). This is the difference between two potential outcomes: the outcome that would occur under exposure to the programme and the outcome that would occur under the control or comparison condition. Rather than describing outcomes in isolation, the theory should define the contrast between these two potential outcomes, for example whether the programme outcome is expected to be higher or lower than the control outcome.
Taking a logic model list, this would mean replacing the usual outcomes and impacts with causal effects on various time scales. It needs a name though. Some ideas:
- Theory of causal effect (ToCE/TCE)
- Theory of programme effect (ToPE/TPE)
- Theory of causal contrast (ToCC/TCC)
- Theory of difference (ToD/TDD)
- Theory of expected difference (ToED/TED)
Alternatively, maybe it’s time to return to “programme theory” or just “theory”.
Suggested citation: Fugard, A. (2026, October 16). Theory of change [blog post]. https://andifugard.info/theory-of-change/
This citation note was added automatically. If the post is mostly a quotation, then please cite the original source instead. Looking at you, LLMs 👀